Lessons of Yesterday

A few thoughts about yesterday's primary results:

1. The Arlen Specter era is over. In the end, the endorsements from the president and vice president and others were not enough. Going negative against Joe Sestak was probably a tactical mistake. It raised Sestak's name recognition and made him look sympathetic--almost like someone who would like to talk about issues rather than spend millions on sleazy TV ads. Kudos to Rick Thomas and others who called out Specter for going negative against a "fellow" Democrat. At least Specter didn't try to argue that he'd forgotten which side he was on again (as he did after his comments about the Norm Coleman/Al Franken dispute).

2. Fred Smith defeats Maurice Brubaker. It's hard to know how the opinions of voters shift since there is no reliable polling, but the Union County Republicans' decision to censure Brubaker for calling himself a public accountant instead of a senior accountant (and the local newspaper headlines about it) couldn't have helped Brubaker's cause. I guess that neutralized his claim that we could use someone in Harrisburg who could read a balance sheet. And it's good to see that the Union County Republican committee is all about maintaining integrity whatever the cost, not about playing politics (ahem). It will be interesting to see if the Brubaker voters will vote for Smith in the fall.

3. Malcolm Derk won at this end of PA-10, but too many of the voters live at the other end. Tom Marino seems to have the Republicans united (unlike Chris Hackett who split the party in his primary race against Dan Muesser last time around). Still, Chris Carney has made a consistent argument that he represents the district and not party. My sense is that Carney has bonded with this district and with its military families and that it will be very hard to defeat him. Having Sestak on the ticket--another centrist Democrat with a military background--should help Carney's chances in the fall.

4. The most important race we're not talking about is the one for governor. Budget crisis, gas drilling, environmental issues, education issues. . . we have huge problems at the state level, and the intangibles favor the Republicans after two terms of a Democrat (Ed Rendell). Dan Onorato has support in the Pittsburgh area but has to build organization across the state, and especially in Philadelphia. Philadelphia's Jonathan Saidel's weak showing in the lt. governor's race (Conklin of Centre County seems to have a slight lead) suggests that even if Saidel wins there will be a lot of work for the Democrats to do in Philadelphia. And how did Conklin win so many votes without money or establishment support? I know his answer in the LWV guide impressed me, but those short answers can't possibly move enough votes to swing the election, can they?