Lessons of Yesterday

A few thoughts about yesterday's primary results:

1. The Arlen Specter era is over. In the end, the endorsements from the president and vice president and others were not enough. Going negative against Joe Sestak was probably a tactical mistake. It raised Sestak's name recognition and made him look sympathetic--almost like someone who would like to talk about issues rather than spend millions on sleazy TV ads. Kudos to Rick Thomas and others who called out Specter for going negative against a "fellow" Democrat. At least Specter didn't try to argue that he'd forgotten which side he was on again (as he did after his comments about the Norm Coleman/Al Franken dispute).

2. Fred Smith defeats Maurice Brubaker. It's hard to know how the opinions of voters shift since there is no reliable polling, but the Union County Republicans' decision to censure Brubaker for calling himself a public accountant instead of a senior accountant (and the local newspaper headlines about it) couldn't have helped Brubaker's cause. I guess that neutralized his claim that we could use someone in Harrisburg who could read a balance sheet. And it's good to see that the Union County Republican committee is all about maintaining integrity whatever the cost, not about playing politics (ahem). It will be interesting to see if the Brubaker voters will vote for Smith in the fall.

3. Malcolm Derk won at this end of PA-10, but too many of the voters live at the other end. Tom Marino seems to have the Republicans united (unlike Chris Hackett who split the party in his primary race against Dan Muesser last time around). Still, Chris Carney has made a consistent argument that he represents the district and not party. My sense is that Carney has bonded with this district and with its military families and that it will be very hard to defeat him. Having Sestak on the ticket--another centrist Democrat with a military background--should help Carney's chances in the fall.

4. The most important race we're not talking about is the one for governor. Budget crisis, gas drilling, environmental issues, education issues. . . we have huge problems at the state level, and the intangibles favor the Republicans after two terms of a Democrat (Ed Rendell). Dan Onorato has support in the Pittsburgh area but has to build organization across the state, and especially in Philadelphia. Philadelphia's Jonathan Saidel's weak showing in the lt. governor's race (Conklin of Centre County seems to have a slight lead) suggests that even if Saidel wins there will be a lot of work for the Democrats to do in Philadelphia. And how did Conklin win so many votes without money or establishment support? I know his answer in the LWV guide impressed me, but those short answers can't possibly move enough votes to swing the election, can they?

Responding to DNC email about Specter

I'm guessing that many of us received an email last week from "Barack Obama" (via the DNC) urging support for Arlen Specter, with a link you could follow to Specter's website to donate or volunteer.

Don't get me wrong, I "understand" the administration must have made a quid-pro-quo deal with Arlen Specter to support him when he switched parties. (But, as Nate Silver suggests, we probably have Sestak, not Obama, to thank for Specter's recent voting record.) But I still think the Democratic "National" Committee ought to stay out of the way, let us have our state primaries, and then help support the Democratic candidate. This part of "Obama's" email bugged me in particular:

But now, he needs your help. He's in a tight race for the Democratic nomination for Senate, and the primary is coming up soon on May 18th.

Vice President Biden and I need him in Washington, fighting alongside us....

Really, DNC? Could you be more passive-voice? "He's in a tight race...." Not even a mention of who the other candidate is, or any reasons why we wouldn't want him instead? I know it probably won't do any good, but I thought the DNC needed to hear that this kind of email from them really doesn't inspire me to donate to them or do anything they ask. Maybe if enough people do the same, they might think twice next time (or not). Here's what I sent them:

Dear DNC,
I do not appreciate the DNC getting involved in our Pennsylvania primary in this way. I know Specter has supported the president's agenda. But some of that support was probably because he felt pressured by his primary challenger, Joe Sestak, to do so. Congressman Sestak has also supported the president's agenda and would make a fine senator.

When you send emails like this, you make people like myself LESS likely to support the DNC. You should be supporting all Democrats in elections against Republicans. I wish you would please stay out of our primary.
Sincerely,
J-